Vikings at Bucs, Week 3. Somebody Please Find the Win Column.

Welcome to Week 3, Krewe. Your Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-2 for the first time in 12 years, and Baker Mayfield is off to a lackluster start after contentious contract negotiations this offseason ended with a new three-year, $165 million contract. It's safe to say this isn't the way anyone pictured the new deal kicking off. In Week 1 against Cincinnati he had three fumbles lost on his own, and in Week 2 against the Browns it didn't even take a full quarter before Mayfield threw an interception.

The result: the Bucs sit at a -4 turnover differential, with opponents scoring 27 points off turnovers in the first two games. Meanwhile Minnesota rolls into Raymond James at 2-0 and tied for first in the NFL with a +4 turnover ratio. That is not a great recipe. But this is a home game against a team that just won 9-3, so let's break down where this one gets won or lost.

This is the matchup that keeps me up at night. Brian Flores does not play defense so much as he conducts a home invasion. The Vikings have sent a blitz on 79.3 percent of their defensive snaps this season according to PFF, which leads the league by a wide margin. Carolina is second at 53.2 percent. Minnesota has generated eight sacks through two games.

The headliners up front are edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner, and tackle Jalen Redmond, with veteran Kyle Van Noy added for depth. Turner is the one breaking out, with three sacks through two games, including a walk-off sack to seal the win in Chicago.

Now the bad news. The Bucs' line came into 2026 ranked third on PFF, but it has not played like it. Against Cleveland, Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch struggled in pass protection, and Mayfield spent most of the afternoon moving around the pocket under pressure. Tristan Wirfs is still Tristan Wirfs, but even he had a rough Sunday. Seven sacks allowed in two games against teams that don't blitz like Minnesota is a flashing red light.

The interior is where Flores will attack, and the Vikings love sending pressure through the A gaps. Graham Barton and the guards have to communicate perfectly, and Mayfield has to get the ball out on time instead of trying to be a Houdini.

Edge: Vikings. Clearly.

Life after Mike Evans has been a bumpy ride. Tampa's offense is producing like a group trying to find itself after moving on from Evans, who spent 12 years with the Bucs before signing with the 49ers. Against Cleveland, the Bucs' receivers struggled mightily to create separation from the Browns' DBs all game.

The good news: bodies are coming back. Jalen McMillan made his season debut after a knee issue kept him out of the opener, giving Mayfield another option alongside Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Tez Johnson also saw an uptick in snaps and made plays. Rookie Ted Hurst had a well-placed ball go through his hands in the end zone, so he owes us one.

Minnesota's back end is aggressive and opportunistic. Byron Murphy Jr. is the leader, Isaiah Rodgers has been everywhere (a blocked field goal and a fumble recovery in Chicago), and James Pierre picked off Jordan Love in Week 1. The Vikings have been nearly impossible to score on inside the 20, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20. That's a problem for a Bucs team that settled for four field goals against Cleveland.

Here's the opportunity: when Flores sends zero blitzes, there's no safety help. If Egbuka or Godwin wins quickly on a slant or a hot route, there's grass behind them. The Bucs have to punish the blitz at least two or three times to make Flores think twice.

Edge: Slight Vikings, but this is where the Bucs can steal big plays.

This is Tampa's best matchup, and it isn't close. Against Cleveland, Irving rushed for 89 yards on 17 carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and the Bucs averaged 5.5 yards per carry as a team. Minnesota's defense is built to get after the quarterback, and it showed some cracks against the run last week, as the Bears piled up 134 rushing yards at better than four yards a carry.

Irving is also the key safety valve against the blitz. He has 11 receptions through two games, tied with Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson for the most by a running back. Given Minnesota's high blitz rates, quick passes to the backs could be essential. The Bucs want more than the current 4.5 yards per completion. Last week, Irving and Kenny Gainwell combined for seven catches and a grand total of six yards, which is honestly impressive in the worst way. Zac Robinson needs to design screens that actually get blockers in front of Bucky.

Edge: Bucs. Feed the man.

Kyler Murray is back. He has cleared the concussion protocol and will start after exiting after just 11 snaps against Green Bay in Week 1. That means the Bucs have to deal with a potent receiver group featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings, now with a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs.

Coming into the season, the Bucs' secondary looked like a possible weakness on paper, especially after the Bucs ranked 27th against the pass last season. So far, though, this group has been a pleasant surprise. Benjamin Morrison has stepped in and played well, including filling in opposite Zyon McCollum while Jacob Parrish missed the Cleveland game with a back injury. Tykee Smith and rookie Keionte Scott have been flying around to the ball, with Scott even getting home on a blitz for his first career sack against the Browns. The back end is not the problem.

The problem is in the middle of the field, and his name is Alex Anzalone. For the second straight week he was a liability, and his brutal missed tackle directly led to Denzel Boston's 55-yard touchdown that tied the Browns game in the second half. Anzalone needs to be benched ASAP. Will he be? Of course not. He'll be starting and playing yet again this week, and with Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason and a scrambling Murray on the other side, that's a matchup Minnesota will absolutely look to exploit.

The saving grace is that the Bucs have been stout on the ground overall, allowing 3.0 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL, and Minnesota runs on 55.4% of its offensive snaps. If Tampa can make the Vikings' backs work for every yard, Murray will be forced to throw into a Bucs pass rush that is desperate to get home. The danger is still Jefferson on third down and Murray breaking contain, and the tackling has to be better than the missed-tackle festival we saw on Cleveland's game-winning drive.

Edge: Slight Vikings. Jefferson is Jefferson, but the Bucs' DBs are up to the challenge.

The line is basically a coin flip with the Vikings a small road favorite, and that feels right. Minnesota's defense is legit, but their offense is shaky. Carson Wentz won those two games managing the offense, and Murray is coming off a concussion and getting his first real run with this group.

I think the Bucs finally play a clean game at home. The run game carries them, the defense holds up in the red zone, and Mayfield plays the kind of boring, mistake-free football that doesn't make highlight reels but does make win columns.

Pirate-Desk Prediction: Bucs 20, Vikings 17.

Key Guy to Watch: Bucky Irving

If the Bucs win this game, it will be because Bucky Irving is the best player on the field. He's the answer to both problems: he punishes a defense that's more interested in chasing the quarterback than filling gaps, and he's the checkdown that makes Flores pay for sending the house. Twenty-plus touches, a couple of screens that actually go somewhere, and the Bucs control the clock and keep Jefferson on the sideline. If Irving is held under 4 yards a carry and the screens go nowhere again, it's going to be a long afternoon of Mayfield running for his life.

I'm going to keep saying it until somebody at One Buc Place hears me: give David Walker more snaps.

The second-year edge rusher out of Central Arkansas has had a long road. After a promising offseason workout program in 2025 following the draft, Walker suffered a torn ACL in training camp and missed his rookie year. In Week 1 he played only special teams. In Week 2 against Cleveland, his snap total was capped at nine, but he made them count, recording one of the Bucs' two sacks. The Bucs gave 37 snaps to Yaya Diaby, 35 to Rueben Bain Jr., 21 to Al-Quadin Muhammad and 15 to Anthony Nelson. In those nine snaps he logged a tackle for loss, a quarterback hit and a sack, the first of his career.

Meanwhile, the guys getting the bulk of the work haven't delivered. Diaby and Bain registered zero sacks for the second week in a row, and Pewter Report put it bluntly: Walker did more in nine snaps than Bain has in two games. Harsh, but facts are facts.

Nine snaps and a sack is not a fluke you bury on the depth chart. Against a mobile quarterback like Murray, you need edge rushers who can get home fast and play with discipline. I'm not asking for Walker to start. I'm asking for 20 to 25 snaps and a real chance to show what he can do. The early signs are encouraging: the team's Week 3 depth chart release highlighted Walker and Tez Johnson as players getting their shot. Let's see it on Sunday.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:05 PM ET on FOX. Fire the cannons, Krewe. It's time to get off the schneid.